"Modest but Accelerating Growth" Forecasted for 2013


Tuesday, December 18 - Well, "modest but accelerating growth" certainly beats the opposite. But it doesn't exactly inspire cartwheels.

A survey of top forecasters from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) are predicting unemployment will hover around 7.7% for most of 2013. The NABE Outlook December 2012 expects the economy to grow by 2.1% following 2.2% growth in 2012.

Given the hole out of which we're trying to climb from the Great Recession, this growth rate would qualify as "tepid," the very word used by Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger in his article on the NABE forecast for the Associated Press.

"Growth at that pace is not strong enough to make a significant improvement in unemployment," Crutsinger writes.

Remember earlier this month when everybody was celebrating unemployment finally dropping below 8% for the first time in four years? OK, maybe not so much celebrating. (By then, the 2012 presidential election had been decided). It's not so hopeful when that same figure is supposed to continue... for... the next...year.

Doesn't sound much like progress, does it?

If you're looking for bright spots in the NABE outlook, there are a few, namely

  • anticipated growth in the residential housing market
  • no increase in inflation
  • possible improvement in the deficit

Stay tuned. This story's far from over.